Someone is engaging in what appears to be an odd pastime in a corner of Brisbane. He imports NFL rookie cards directly from American dealers, including Topps, Panini, and the entire spread, sorts them into binders, and waits. Without much fanfare, quietly, methodically. It’s likely that the majority of his neighbors believe he collects sports memorabilia in the same way that some people collect dust.
However, if you take a moment to examine the evolution of Australia’s trading card market over the previous five years, the move begins to appear less bizarre and more like real foresight.
Ten years ago, it would have seemed ridiculous how the Australian collecting scene has evolved. With limited-edition Select releases selling out in minutes and AFL cards fetching thousands of dollars, what started out as children exchanging football cards at the school gate has developed into a respectable secondary market. Online sales of a 2021 box of Select’s Optimum product outpaced those of concert tickets. At auction, single cards with well-known names have brought in ten thousand dollars. The early adopters are now sitting on significant value. The change came gradually at first, then abruptly.
The investor from Brisbane who imports NFL rookie cards is speculating that American football will soon experience something similar. It’s not an irrational read. Due in part to streaming availability and in part to a younger generation that grew up watching highlight reels on social media rather than being restricted to whatever sport happened to be on free-to-air, NFL viewership in Australia has been increasing. Similar to how some AFL prospects do prior to draft night, names like Travis Hunter, Cam Ward, and Shedeur Sanders are beginning to make the rounds in Australian collector circles.
Additionally, there is a limited-time pricing window. NFL rookie cards are still priced against a primarily American market, even if they are graded PSA 10s of high-profile picks. The economics look very different if you import them now, before local demand raises both the cards and the shipping costs. A 2018 rookie card that was initially valued at about $40 eventually reached a peak of almost $15,000 and is currently trading at about $5,000. Although there is no guarantee that this trajectory will recur, it is also not insignificant.
This Brisbane case is intriguing for reasons other than the financial computation. It’s the knowledge that collecting booms typically lag behind cultural trends. After the hobby had been quietly growing for years, the market for AFL cards exploded. In the 1990s, Australia’s basketball card moment came after, not before, Michael Jordan’s worldwide success. If the NFL moment occurs, it will likely seem clear in retrospect, and those who were ahead of it will appear to have known something that everyone else didn’t.
How much of an impact that NFL wave will have locally is still unknown. American football just doesn’t have the same deep roots as the AFL. However, “local market only” thinking has already been shown to be incorrect on multiple occasions in the card industry. With Australian collectors purchasing American cards and vice versa, the hobby is now more globally connected. Geography is not as important as it once was.
In Brisbane, the binders are already filling up. The investor appears willing to wait for the wider market to catch on, whether it takes three years or twelve months. The entire process has an almost antiquated sense of patience, perhaps the same patience that motivates anyone to hold a piece of cardboard and secretly believe that it is worth more than it appears without the need for confirmation from anyone else.
