It took place again. The newest set of Topps Dynamic Duals baseball cards was gone within minutes of going live. Not hours. It’s not evening yet. Shorts. Some collectors said the window shut in less than 90 seconds. Some people said the page didn’t even fully load.
All of this shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who has followed the trading card market over the last few years. It’s interesting to look at how consistently these sellouts happen and what that pattern says about how Topps works, who it’s really selling to, and whether the average collector ever had a chance in the first place.
Due to what hobbyists have been writing on forums and comment threads for months, the short answer is most likely not.
Part of the reason these drops are so uneven is the way they were sent out. A big chunk of the stock has already been sold before any cards even get to the Topps website for general sale. A lot of the early stock goes to large case breakers, which are businesses that buy a lot of the product, film the opening, and sell “spots” to viewers. Then the local card shops get their cases, which are usually a few per store. For most people, the math is already against them by the time they get a login screen. It’s possible that the supply that most collectors can see is only a small part of what was actually made for that release window.
When buying bots are added to the mix, the window gets even smaller. Bots don’t think twice. They don’t mess up a payment form or get sidetracked. They work very quickly and reach the checkout page before most people have finished scrolling past the product image. A lot of collectors who have been keeping a close eye on these drops have noticed that the amounts seem to drop all at once, instead of slowly dropping as buyers click through each one at a time. Sure, that’s not proof, but it’s also not nothing.
All of this is based on a larger frustration that goes beyond any single release. In the years 2020 and 2021, trading card collecting really took off, attracting new collectors who wanted to put together sets, look for players they liked, and be a part of something that felt like a community. A lot of them found instead a market based on resale value, a culture of breaking cases, and products that were gone before they could act. Some of those collectors have left without making a sound. Some people keep trying because they want to or because it’s what they’ve always done.
For its part, Topps has never seemed very eager to find a long-term solution to the bot problem. There are tools for verification. Technically, it is possible to have queuing systems that give people access at random instead of rewarding speed. Other industries that deal with limited stock and high demand, like concert ticket sales and sneaker drops, have at least tried these solutions, with varying levels of success. Now, the question of whether Topps has the drive to really use them is another matter. There are some ways to look at a product that sells out in ten minutes as a success story. It makes a noise. It sends a message of desire. On a balance sheet, the anger of thousands of collectors doesn’t always show up clearly.
It’s hard not to notice that the people who can always buy things at retail are the ones who could get them before retail opened. That’s the awkward loop in the middle of this. Unless the rules for these drops are changed in a meaningful way, the next Topps Dynamic release will also likely sell out in ten minutes. Maybe not as much.
