Someone in the hobby declares a rookie class to be the best in a generation every few years, but it usually doesn’t hold up. The conversation on card shop counters and collector forums suggests that this time feels different. There’s a feeling that this isn’t just another marketing campaign coinciding with the release of a new product, but something truly unique is taking place.
Even before the players have completed their rookie seasons, you can hear the same names repeated if you walk into any card shop right now. That’s not typical. Rookie card values, which are determined by actual performance rather than projection, typically take some time to stabilize. However, dealers claim that early auction prices and presales are already acting as though these players are well-established stars, which could indicate either genuine talent or that everyone is simultaneously chasing the same hype.
A helpful analogy is provided by history. In addition to creating a star, the 1989 Upper Deck class centered on Ken Griffey Jr. changed the way the entire hobby viewed rookie cards, transforming what had previously been a specialized collecting category into the cornerstone of the contemporary market. Ten years prior, Mark Fidrych accomplished a similar feat, becoming the first rookie to drive sales of an entire product solely through popularity. Moments like that are uncommon. The majority of rookie classes are excellent. Very few are used as benchmarks.
This year’s class is noteworthy for its depth rather than just one exceptional player. Collectors seem most excited about the fact that several rookies are drawing serious early Hall of Fame or Hall of Fame-caliber talk at the same time. For a year or two, a single superstar can lead a class. A deep class with four or five players is typically more durable than a single hot season and is what collectors really want to hold for the long run.
However, it’s important to acknowledge how frequently this type of discussion proves to be premature. The same reluctance is prevalent in Reddit threads and forum posts on the topic, with people pointing out that highly anticipated draft classes frequently produce more busts than anticipated, while classes that are written off early occasionally quietly produce several stars years later. At the time, the 2020 NBA draft was viewed as weak. Since then, a number of those players have been selected for All-Star teams. The hobby has a tendency to rewrite its own predictions, and memory is short.
Additionally, casual collectors seldom give the production aspect much thought. For years, card companies have been modifying rookie card formats and release schedules, in part due to supply chain interruptions that caused some releases to be delayed. These comparisons can become hazy over decades because a “rookie class” in card terms doesn’t always correspond neatly with a player’s actual rookie season.
It’s also difficult to ignore the timing. Since the pandemic-era boom subsided, the hobby has been searching for its next pivotal moment, and there is clearly a desire for a tale like this one. It probably won’t be evident for another two or three seasons whether the hype is genuinely earned or shaped by that appetite. It usually works like that. The cards are now purchased. The decision is made later.
